Who Are the IPCC?

We hear a lot about the science in the news but you only get bits of knowledge from the media. They know so much and assume that everyone else knows the same sometimes. I wanted to understand more about what the scientists are saying. It turns out that there is a wealth of knowledge and agreement among scientists, which is summarised on this page.

The IPCC is a group of the World’s most intelligent scientists who represent their expertise and their government, and is made up of hundreds of scientists. It produces reports with the backing of the United Nations and the World Meteorological Organization. Think of the IPCC as the Earth’s best friend. What they say needs to be listened to, but has consistently been ignored by governments from their first report to the latest one. However, what the IPCC says is profound and must be acted on if we are to continue to enjoy our current living conditions on Earth. The IPCC can only tell us what is happening, they can only ask for change and cannot make it happen. That is dependant upon us. The IPCCs message is explained further at the bottom of this page in several news reports which get across the severity of the message. Think of the media as the person on the street corner who is shouting for all to hear and understand.

The IPCC Represents Agreement Among Experts

The text below is taken from this website.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/climate-change-explained

The great majority of scientific evidence, built up over many years, shows that the planet is warming and that human activity is the main contributor to this warming.

Many leading national scientific organisations have published statements confirming the need to take action to prevent dangerous climate change. These include:

• The G8+5 National Science Academies’ Joint National Statement which represents the UK, along with Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United States

• The American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) statement

• The Royal Society and US National Academy of Sciences have produced an authoritative and accessible report on Climate Change Evidence and Causes which provides answers to many common questions.

You can find out more about the scientific evidence on climate change from:

• The Met Office Hadley Centre

• Frequently Asked Questions from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

• The UK Geological Society

NASA has an amazing website here on climate change, showing how the world has changed in photos, with latest scientific evidence and global indicators like carbon dioxide levels and so much more.

The role of the IPCC

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is an independent body composed of scientists from around the world. It has been tasked by the United Nations to assess and review the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic evidence related to climate change.

The IPCC’s Fifth Assessment science report concluded that the scientific evidence for a warming climate is indisputable and that ‘human influence on the climate system is clear’.

The IPCC’s assessments are the most authoritative view on the science of climate change available.

These links below are further UK summaries of the IPCC 5th Assessment reports from 2013/14 and may be of interest.

• The Physical Science Basis of Climate Change report, 27 September 2013

• Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability report, 31 March 2014

• Mitigation of Climate Change report, 12 April 2014

It is still possible to limit warming to 1.5°C; globally achieving this will require strong and rapid mitigation of greenhouse gases and also the use of greenhouse gas removal (GGR) technologies, to directly remove carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. Such methods could involve, for example, planting trees, biofuel crops coupled with capture and storage of released carbon, and machines to directly capture carbon from air. Pilot studies and further analysis are needed for these and other options, to explore if they are commercially and technically feasible on a global scale.

In one of its most ground-breaking reports, Special Report: Global Warming of 1.5ºC, which was released in October 2018, IPCC scientists answer the question: How can the world achieve the committed 1.5ºC temperature goal, and what happens if we don’t? Their research reveals that we must take unprecedented — and widespread — action now. In order to prevent warming past 1.5ºC and extreme climate change, we will need to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.

1. In May 2019, IPCC released the 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, which provides methodologies for managing national human-caused emissions inventories.

2. The IPCC also released the Special Report Climate Change and Land in August 2019, which focuses on the connections among climate change, food security and sustainable land management.

3. The next report released in September 2019 —  The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate,  the IPCC discusses the impacts of climate change on coastal, ocean, polar and mountain ecosystems, as well as the impacts on the human communities that depend on these ecosystems.

4. The next report is from August 2021 which has the wonderful title of AR6 Climate Change 2021 - The Physical Science Basis. This is the worlds most eminent scientists telling us some hard truths. In previous reports they have tried to be nice but this time the gloves are off and they are saying this as best they can without shouting at everyone. If they were not so nice they would be yelling at us and banging their fists on the table.

   What they say is startling. Everywhere is affected and it will get a lot worse. CO2 levels are now at the highest point for 2million years. Heating and changes are the most severe for the last 3000 years. If we cut emissions drastically we could stay within 1.5C heating, but if not 2C heating is likely. This is bad. If we don’t cut emissions then 3C is likely. Really bad. If nothing changes then 4C 5C is likely which is catastrophic for life. Nothing will reverse for several thousand years either so it will only get worse, with ice melting, oceans warming. Oceans could rise by anything up to 2metres by the end of the century. Pacific Countries could disappear. 5m by 2150. 2,400bn tonnes of CO2 have been emitted since 1850 and we can only emit 400bn more if we are to try and keep within 1.5C. We have used up 86% of our budget and emissions are not falling anywhere yet. They must peak within 4 years. This is the scientists presenting the evidence to politicians allowing them to act. IF only they did, as no politician wants to say to someone you must do something you don’t want to do, as they will be voted out. We need the economists to act instead to make all the bad things more expensive.

5. The IPCC's full Summary for Policymakers report is a short and frank report and is well worth a read.

6. The next report published in February 2022 looks at the impacts of climate change on the world and its people. Its findings are stark and it sets out the loss to nature and damage to people from climate change. It is everywhere and 40% of the worlds population is now highly vulnerable. A mass extinction is already underway with conservation of approximately 30% to 50% of Earth’s land, freshwater and ocean areas, including currently near-natural ecosystems now required. The ability to adapt is nearly used, and this leads to changes in ecosystems that are severe, but we must limit the temperature increase to 1.5C to limit the impacts.

7. The IPCC then published another report in April 2022 that concentrates on how we can reduce emissions. It sets out what needs to be done, that developing countries need support from the rest, and the rest need to act in reducing emissions. This report means that Countries have to act, but of course we know from the two rules set out here, that nothing will happen because there is no one like the United Nations making laws that every Country has to follow. Some will act but I fear that the majority will deliberately not do enough.

   A summary of this report is in World News for 4th April which is as follows:

   There is a narrow chance of keeping the increase in temperature to 1.5C. Got to stop using coal.  Have to keep the trees we have got, cannot plant enough to stop what is happening.  Carbon capture technology will not help us.  We need to change our lifestyles now.  The investment in existing technology needed is a small proportion of GDP so is possible if there is the will. 

   Emissions must peak by 2025 and must be halved by 2030.  This is possible but at the moment we are doing nothing to avoid rising temperatures of 3C.  This is nothing short of catastrophic for our children.

   CO2 safe Level is 350.  May 2022 its 419 and it went up by 25 in ten years but is rising exponentially. The last time they were this high was 20 million years ago. See here for more information.

Science in the Media - See World News Page too.

5th November 2019 The Guardian

Climate Crises: 11,000 scientists warn of untold suffering. Statement set out the vital signs as indicators of the magnitude of climate emergency. Most Countries climate plans 'totally inadequate' say experts.

This is yet another pivotal piece of science that we ignore at our peril. To summarise the article which is well worth reading, it states that the planet is facing a climate emergency. We must change how we work with natural ecosystems.

The climate crises is here, accelerating and is much worse than scientists could have imagined. It has been 40 years since the first climate conference, and this article is endorsed by 11,000 scientists from 154 nations. What more do we need before we act?

The four key things that they say must end now is population growth, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, halting forest destruction and slashing meat eating.

Professor Ripple of Oregon State University is key in pointing this out to us. He cites that the vital signs of things going badly are rocketing population growth, air transport use, meat production and Co2 and methane emissions, rising sea levels, rising surface temperature, the rising number of extreme weather events each year and the rising amount of Greenland ice that has melted.

40 years of climate negotiations has resulted in no change to warming sea and land, rising sea levels and more extreme weather events.

They recommend that we use energy more efficiently and have a carbon tax to aim to keep fossil fuels in the ground. That global population growth is stabilised with more education for girls and women. End all destruction of nature and replant forests and mangrove swamps. Eat mostly plants and reduce food waste by distributing food more widely, and move economic goals away from GDP growth. This is a new world of Eco Economics and living.

Professor Ripple cites earlier articles from 2017 and 1992 whereby the same message has been given. So far ignored. Luckily he is not giving up on us and will keep on making his messages as blunt as possible for people and policy makers to understand. If anyone deserves a Nobel prize he does, we all should be eternally grateful for his work, and that of his colleagues around the world.

The Guardian 6th May 2019

Human Society Under urgent threat from loss of Earth’s natural life

This article summarises the UN Global Assessment Report on nature’s ecosystems, which is prepared from over 15,000 separate studies, and by hundreds of scientists. Since pre-history humans have contributed to a decline in the following:

• Wild Mammals by 82%

• Natural ecosystems area occupied by 47%

• Plants and animals threatened with extinction 25%

• Natural land species by 23%

What this means is that coral reefs are dying, rainforest will convert to savannah, 40% of amphibious species are threatened with extinction, insects and pollinators are becoming extinct, land is being eroded and is less productive, and freshwater is becoming scarcer. It’s quite depressing really when you think what this means. Life in your little bit of the world is just about to change drastically, not tomorrow, but in a few years’ time you will notice a difference, and then it will be too late. It is as if we are deliberately eroding the small island that we are standing on in the middle of the river. Soon it will be gone, and the river will sweep us away. We need to act now to make our island stronger by supporting nature.

This leads nicely to the next article also in the Guardian the following day.

The Guardian 7th May 2019

UN Environmental Warning 10 key points and what Australia must do.

The article lists 10 universal findings for us all. These are:

1. Human life will be severely impacted if we do not protect biodiversity

2. Species are dying at the cost of food security

3. We should support Indigenous knowledge and land management

4. That includes land rights for indigenous people

5. Reforestation for carbon sequestration could harm biodiversity if it is not diverse

6. We have to protect green spaces in cities

7. We are losing a lot of water to agriculture

8. We need to ditch subsidies that encourage environmentally harmful practices

9. We will lose all the coral if we can’t keep climate change below 2C

10. We need to take an ecosystem-based approach to managing fisheries

The BBC

The BBC has a page explaining climate change with some really good graphics

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24021772

Where we are in 7 charts. This is for the Science section too it’s very detailed.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46384067

This then leads to lots of other articles in the Our Planet Matters Series.

This then leads you to some other short clips. The first is about Greta Thunberg about travelling by boat instead of by plane to the climate summit.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/science-environment-49331885/greta-thunberg-s-zero-carbon-journey-i-might-feel-a-bit-seasick

And the next one about the advantages of trees and planting more trees in the UK and around the world.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-wales-50523355/could-trees-solve-wales-and-the-uk-s-co2-problem

And the next one about a small town in Finland that is aiming to cut its carbon emissions totally. If they can do it where its cold, then is should be possible for us all to manage to do it.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-48060788/finland-s-new-generation-of-climate-heroes